The World Unpacked Abandoning Ukraine? Trump's Policy and Europe's Challenge
Mar 7, 2025
In this insightful discussion, Dara Massicot, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Program, delves into the shifting dynamics of U.S. military aid to Ukraine. She highlights the implications of the potential suspension of intelligence sharing and its effect on both Ukrainian and European security. The conversation also touches on Europe's urgent need for effective support amidst waning U.S. involvement, the complexities of modernizing Ukraine's military, and the risks surrounding easing sanctions on Russia's defense production.
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Current State of the Battlefield
- The war in Ukraine is currently in an attritional phase, marked by static front lines with minor changes in territory.
- Ukrainian forces are slowly being pushed back in some areas but are also counterattacking.
Impact of US Aid Suspension
- Halting US military aid could allow the war to continue for 2-3 months, potentially backfilled by Europeans, though some capabilities cannot be replaced.
- Suspending US intelligence sharing is a more immediate problem, blinding Ukrainians to Russian activity at operational and strategic depth.
Trump's Policy Towards Ukraine
- The Trump administration aims to end the war in Ukraine and seems to be applying pressure on Ukrainians by suspending aid and intelligence.
- This approach compels Ukrainians towards peace, but there's less pressure on Russia to stop its attacks.