Sanctions and the Resilience of Russia's Military Production

Nearly a week after the tense Oval Office meeting between President Trump and President Zelensky, and just days after the Trump administration’s abrupt decision to pause military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, serious questions loom over America’s commitment to Kyiv’s security. At the same time, the White House appears to be exploring a thaw with Moscow—including potential sanctions relief with little in return.

In this episode, Sophia Besch and Dara Massicot unpack the implications of these moves: What message does this send to Ukraine and its European allies? How are European leaders responding? And what does this shift mean for U.S. foreign policy and great power competition?

Notes:

1. Dara Massicot, Russian Military Reconstitution: 2030 Pathways and Prospects, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 12, 2024.