Naturalistic Decision Making #47: The Intelligence of Intuition with Gerd Gigerenzer
Oct 12, 2023
Gerd Gigerenzer, Director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy, discusses the evolution of heuristics in decision-making and the importance of intuition in leadership. They explore the concept of intuition, influential figures on decision-making, and the limitations of classical decision theory in uncertain situations.
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Heuristics Excel In Real-World Uncertainty
- People routinely use simple heuristics, not exhaustive calculations, to make real-life decisions.
- Evaluate heuristics by the environments where they succeed, not against abstract optimizing models.
Judge Rationality By Environment
- Ecological rationality judges decisions by real-world success, not abstract logic.
- Identify situations where a heuristic outperforms regression, Bayesian, or utility-maximizing benchmarks.
Outfielder's Constant-Gaze Trick
- Baseball outfielders catch fly balls by keeping the angle of gaze constant rather than computing trajectories.
- This single-cue heuristic reliably places the fielder where the ball will land.