Saxo Market Call Geopolitics derails risk sentiment, but for how long?
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Jun 13, 2025 
In this discussion featuring Ole Hansen, Saxo Head of Commodities Strategy, the duo dives into the repercussions of Israel's attacks on Iran, particularly on crude oil prices and global market reactions. They dissect how geopolitical tensions intertwine with U.S. labor market trends, amplifying investor uncertainty. Hansen also sheds light on key upcoming macro events and the impact of rising energy costs on central bank policies. Expect insights into commodities, cryptocurrencies, and the shifting dynamics of the Japanese yen amid these turbulent times.
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Geopolitics Trigger Risk Spikes
- The Iran nuclear talks and Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear sites sparked rapid geopolitical risk and crude oil price spikes.
- However, regional conflict appetite is low, suggesting limited long-term disruption to crude supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
US Labor Data Shows Softening
- Weak U.S. jobless claims and continuing claims point toward labor market softening.
- Dollar selling off and unusual mixed currency moves highlight market uncertainty amid geopolitical concerns.
Fed Policy Could Shift Politically
- Future Fed policy may be influenced by political factors, with speculation of early Fed nominations to guide markets.
- Market expects yields to be guided lower amid economic uncertainty and political pressure.