Can We Have a Habitable Planet? - Ep152: David Wallace-Wells
Jan 31, 2024
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Journalist and author David Wallace-Wells discusses the scope and severity of climate change, the lasting impact of carbon emissions, recent methane regulations, the efficiency of new energy systems, reflections on climate science, and approaches to addressing climate change through fear, hope, and innovative solutions.
Climate change awareness is essential to prepare for worst-case scenarios and the potential consequences.
The storytelling of climate change is complicated due to uncertainties and interconnected stories.
China has emerged as a leader in the global green transition, raising the challenge for the US to catch up.
Reaching net zero emissions requires significant reduction and a moral responsibility to address the problem.
Shifting to renewable energy requires both reducing demand and limiting the supply of fossil fuels.
Deep dives
David Wallace Wells' interest in climate change and his work
David Wallace Wells, a journalist and author, gained recognition in the climate scene after writing an article exploring worst-case climate scenarios. He later published the book 'The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming.' He discusses how his interest in climate change grew after reading alarming scientific research and noticing the lack of awareness about worst-case possibilities among the general public. His goal was to break the delusions and bring attention to the potential consequences of climate change. While his work gained massive readership, he also faced criticism from climate scientists and advocates for potentially exaggerating the science. However, he defended his work by providing factual references and arguing that fear is a motivating force for climate engagement.
The complexity and uncertainty of climate science
Climate science is faced with multiple layers of uncertainty, including the complexity of the climate system, the challenges in modeling future scenarios, and the unpredictable human and political responses to climate change. The narrative storytelling around climate change is difficult due to the multitude of interconnected stories and the uncertainty involved. Despite the uncertainties, there is an optimistic view regarding the energy transition and the potential for a fossil-free future. However, the urgency of the climate crisis is reflected in the continual rise of carbon in the atmosphere and global emissions. The future is inherently uncertain, and both optimistic and pessimistic perspectives should be considered.
The role of the US and China in climate action
China has emerged as a dominant player in the global green transition, with a significant lead in the production chains of green technologies. The US, historically the largest polluter, has a challenge in catching up. While the US is making strides in renewable energy and shifting toward clean technologies, there is uncertainty about its ability to surpass China in the production of green technologies. Ultimately, the geopolitical dynamics, market forces, and uncertainties in economics will shape the future landscape of climate action. However, there is a need for the US to step up its commitment to global climate efforts, including addressing the issue of loss and damage and providing meaningful support to the Global South.
Importance of reducing emissions and the long road to zero
Reducing emissions is crucial, but even with small reductions, we are still causing significant damage to the environment. The goal of reaching net zero emissions is a challenging and distant target, requiring a substantial decrease from the current level of 50 billion tons of CO2 equivalent per year. We must acknowledge the intellectual honesty and moral responsibility to address the problem, realizing that we are far from solving it.
The need to address both demand and supply of fossil fuels
A shift away from fossil fuels requires not only reducing demand but also limiting the supply. Merely substituting fossil fuels with clean energy is not enough, as the industry aims to maintain business as usual by making marginal improvements to fossil fuel production. Cutting both sides of the scissors means reducing demand and implementing legal constraints on supply to prevent the creation of new demand. The profitability of fossil fuels poses a challenge, as it remains more lucrative compared to renewables, necessitating political and economic interventions to drive the necessary transformation.
The lasting environmental impact of carbon emissions
The accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere creates a long-lasting and immense monument to industrial civilization. Weighing more than everything ever built on Earth and surpassing the total weight of living matter, the significant challenge lies in the invisibility and underappreciation of this atmospheric blanket. While efforts to address air pollution and its health impacts are encouraging, the carbon emissions and climate change problem persist indefinitely, governing our future and requiring continuous action.
Changing dynamics, cleaner alternatives, and political context
The transition to renewable energy offers cheaper and more efficient alternatives to fossil fuels. As the price declines and global realization of the benefits of clean energy grows, the political landscape shifts. Despite the polarization in the US, recent breakthroughs in clean energy investment and infrastructure, driven by legislation like the IRA, demonstrate significant positive impacts on carbon emissions. However, the timeline and pace of change remain critical, and political challenges, such as the adoption of electric vehicles and reductions in internal combustion engine cars, persist.
Climate change as a wicked problem and motivating factors
Addressing climate change involves navigating a wicked problem with multiple variables and uncertainties. Fear and hope both serve as motivating factors for individuals' engagement in finding solutions, experiencing the impacts firsthand, and seeking more sustainable alternatives. The increasing personalization of climate impacts and the allure of finding innovative solutions pave the way for progress and mobilization, recognizing the need to continually explore different approaches and break through the barriers.
Lessons learned and the evolving narrative
Looking back on the journey, there is a recognition that presenting worst-case scenarios was instrumental in raising awareness. However, it is essential to balance these scenarios with nuanced perspectives, acknowledging the potential for change and distinguishing media narratives from actual outcomes. The evolving political context, increased understanding of renewable energy's economic viability, and the realization that the future is changeable inspire hope, encouraging individuals and societies to actively shape the narrative and strive for a more stable, just, and sustainable world.
This week, Bryony is back, this time to talk to David Wallace-Wells. David is an American journalist and author who often writes about climate change. His 2017 article "The Uninhabitable Earth" for New York Magazine was the publication's most-read article in history. David then turned the article into a book of the same name, which was chosen as Book of the Year, 2019, by The Sunday Times, The Spectator and New Statesman.
He has a BA in History from Brown University.
Links
Read David's original 2017 article here: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html
Read the 2020 Nature Article on RCP 8.5 here: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3
Read Jim Hansen's recent paper on climate sensitivity: https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889
View Bryony's favourite Sankey diagram showing US energy inputs and outputs: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/
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