Deal Flow Friday Multifamily Market Monologue: David Moghavem
In this special solo episode of Deal Flow Friday, David Moghavem delivers a wide-angle “multi-market monologue,” offering a real-time pulse check on the multifamily landscape as 2025 comes to a close.
He unpacks how Jerome Powell’s decision to end the Fed’s balance sheet runoff marks a key pivot from quantitative tightening to easing liquidity, and what that means for buyers, sellers, and lenders heading into 2026.
David also explores the shifting capital landscape, from private credit compression to the resurgence of institutional platform investments, while introducing a critical underwriting metric for today’s environment: Going-In Yield on Cost, a mark-to-market lens that adjusts for higher delinquencies, concessions, insurance, and deferred maintenance.
The episode spotlights two contrasting markets — Denver, where oversupply and new landlord regulations are pressuring fundamentals, and the Bay Area, where AI-driven job growth, renewed office momentum, and strong civic leadership are fueling one of the most compelling rebound stories in the country.
David closes with a forward look at how discipline, creativity, and true partnerships will define the next phase of multifamily investing.
Chapters:
00:00 Introduction to the Multifamily Market Monologue
02:31 The Fed’s Announcement & Balance Sheet Runoff Ending
08:29 Seller Behavior: Meeting the Market
13:02 Shifts in Buyer and Seller Dynamics
17:09 Why Don't 7-Cap Deals Pencil? Going-In Yield on Cost.
24:12 Tough Love for Denver: Why the Mile High Market’s Struggling (...for Now)
33:25 Back to the Bay: Tech, Talent, and a Multifamily Revival
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