Will India Become a Global Superpower? | Samo Burja

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Apr 5, 2025

Samo Burja, an expert on demographics and geopolitics, joins Erik Torenberg to dissect India's potential as a global superpower. They delve into India's demographic shifts, including its surprising decline in fertility rates and the bureaucratic hurdles hampering industrial growth. The discussion highlights Modi's nationalism, India’s digital aspirations, and the complex rivalry with China and Pakistan. Burja explores how institutional barriers could affect India's rise in a rapidly changing multipolar world.

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INSIGHT

India's Demographic Surprise

India's demographic decline might be as rapid as China's, despite lower wealth.
Fertility rates are already below replacement, raising concerns about aging and economic growth.

INSIGHT

Impact of Aging

India's rapid aging will strain its economy and create labor shortages.
This could limit India's global talent pool and impact innovation.

INSIGHT

Institutional Barriers

Institutional barriers, like bureaucratic inefficiency, hinder India's short-term growth.
These barriers stem from India's socialist-leaning history and complex governance.

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Erik Torenberg and Samo Burja examine India's trajectory as the world's most populous nation, tackling India's surprising demographic decline, delayed industrialization due to bureaucratic inefficiency, and complex relations with China and Pakistan. They explore Modi's nationalist approach, India's digital potential, and how institutional barriers might limit India's rise in a multipolar world order.

Make sure to subscribe to Samo Burja's Bismarck Brief and the Live Players podcast to read analyses and briefs like this one:

Bismarck Brief: https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/
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HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DISCUSSION:

Demographics: India has surpassed China in population but faces rapid aging with fertility rates already below replacement level.
Economic Development: Industrialization likely within 50 years, not 10; constrained by bureaucracy and regulation rather than demographics.
Reform Needs: Requires anti-corruption efforts, reduced bureaucracy, special economic zones, and infrastructure development.
Geopolitics: Complicated relationships with China (border disputes) and the West; Samo suggests India should be more self-interested in international relations.
Modi's Impact: Promotes nationalism but hasn't effectively addressed bureaucratic problems.
Digital Potential: Has talent for creating domestic tech giants with proper digital protectionism.
Warning: Must avoid nuclear conflict with Pakistan.