'The Rise and Fall of the EAST' chronicles China's economic history
Mar 6, 2024
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China's economic history is discussed in 'The Rise and Fall of the EAST', focusing on exams, autocracy, stability, and technology as major contributors. The declining property sector, lack of investment in people, and current political leadership raises concerns for China's future. The podcast delves into parallels with global economic trends, China's property sector influence on GDP growth, and the impact of historical examination system on society and governance.
China's economy faces threats from declining property sector and lack of investment in people, impacting GDP growth.
Recent centralization trend under Xi Jinping hampers incentives for entrepreneurs, jeopardizing economic growth potential.
Deep dives
Declining Property Sector in China
The property sector in China, which accounts for 30% of the GDP, is facing a slump. This decline is impacting overall economic growth as people are unable to afford properties due to stagnant income levels. The government's focus on investing in infrastructure rather than in people's wages has led to a decrease in consumer spending and economic uncertainty, further hampering GDP growth. The pessimistic sentiment in the stock market reflects a lack of confidence among consumers, signaling broader warning signs for the Chinese economy.
Implications of Centralized Economic Control in China
While China has historically decentralized economic management, recent trends under Xi Jinping show a shift towards centralization. This move is affecting incentives for private entrepreneurs and hindering economic growth. Unless this trend is reversed and China returns to decentralized economic policies, sustaining previous levels of economic growth may prove challenging. It is crucial for Chinese leadership to recognize the importance of economic reforms, political decentralization, and globalization to revitalize the economy.
Yasheng Huang, a professor of global economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, names four major contributors to China's economy in his new book, The Rise and Fall of the EAST: exams, autocracy, stability and technology. Huang writes that those have been the driving factors of Chinese development dating back to the Sui dynasty, and particularly during the economic boom of the past half-century. But he tells Here & Now's Scott Tong that a declining property sector, a lack of investment in people and today's political leadership is ringing alarms for the country's future.
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