Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod Weekender: When in the course of macro events

Jul 5, 2024

The podcast discusses global PMIs, US payroll reports, potential rate cuts, inflation concerns, and the impact of political uncertainties on the economy. It also covers central banks' easing cycles, private payrolls momentum, global economic indicators, challenges faced in Europe and emerging markets, and the sensitivity of economies to market jitters and fiscal constraints.

21:05

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Quick takeaways

Global PMIs show strong growth at midyear, but business expectations indicate future concerns as political uncertainties rise.

Inflation trends are softening, signaling potential early rate cuts; central banks could initiate significant easing cycles, especially the Fed in September.

Deep dives

Current Economic Outlook and Growth Indicators

The podcast discusses the latest economic indicators, such as the global PMI and US payroll report, suggesting a reasonably positive trend with US job growth moderating but remaining solid. Despite an overall optimistic outlook, concerns regarding momentum and growth moderation are raised, especially in the business services sector.

Intro

3min

Central Banks' Easing Cycle and Private Payrolls Momentum

4min

Global Economic Indicators and Central Bank Reactions

9min

Analysis of Bank of Japan's potential QT and rate hike, consumer growth prospects, and political events impact on markets

3min

Analysis of European and Emerging Market Economies' Sensitivity to Market Jitters and Fiscal Constraints

3min

The latest data show a global expansion that is both resilient and moderating. The June global PMIs remain consistent with strong growth at midyear, while a slide in business expectations points to concerns in the months ahead as political uncertainties heat up. In the US a solid payrolls report fuels consumer purchasing power but the moderation in the pace of growth could portend more slowing to come. With hints of inflation slowing as well, the direction of travel is toward potentially earlier rate cuts.

Speakers:

Bruce Kasman

Joseph Lupton

This podcast was recorded on 5 July 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

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Global Data Pod

Global Data Pod Weekender: When in the course of macro events

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

Current Economic Outlook and Growth Indicators

Inflation Trends and Central Bank Responses

Political Uncertainty and Market Reactions

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts