In a gripping discussion, Kim Ghattas, a distinguished Middle Eastern affairs expert and FT contributing editor, analyzes the fallout of Israel’s actions in Lebanon on Syria's landscape. She touches on the rebel advances in Aleppo and their implications for Assad’s brittle alliances with Russia and Iran. Ghattas delves into the evolving dynamics of regional powers, the shifting influence of Hezbollah, and the complex realities faced by civilians caught in conflict. The conversation also touches on the hope and resilience of Lebanese citizens amid ongoing chaos.
The fall of Aleppo to opposition forces signifies a potential destabilization of Assad's regime, raising concerns about his military and political future.
Hezbollah's weakening in Lebanon not only undermines Assad's support but also signals a broader reevaluation of regional power dynamics.
Deep dives
The Changing Landscape of Power in Syria
The recent fall of Aleppo to opposition forces marks a significant shift in the Syrian civil war, raising questions about the stability of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This victory for the rebels, comprised of both jihadist and secular factions, has caught many off guard and highlights a newfound momentum in their efforts. The Assad government, which had previously regained control with substantial military backing from allies like Russia and Iran, now faces renewed challenges as many regional players reassess their positions. The situation has forced Assad to reconsider his approach, as he finds himself vulnerable amidst shifting alliances and pressures from external forces.
Hezbollah's Declining Role and Its Implications
Hezbollah's recent struggles in Lebanon have profoundly impacted the dynamics in Syria, as the group was crucial in bolstering Assad's regime during earlier years of the conflict. With Hezbollah significantly weakened by its conflict with Israel, the reduced capacity of this ally raises doubts about Assad's military options and overall security. As a pivotal ally that aided in maintaining Assad's grip on power, Hezbollah's losses have left the Syrian president in a precarious situation, whereby he may need to negotiate his standing to survive. The political landscape in Lebanon is shifting as local voices challenge Hezbollah's dominance, hinting at a broader reevaluation of power structures in the region.
The Complex Web of External Influences
Numerous international actors have vested interests in Syria, complicating the ongoing conflict as they navigate their own geopolitical agendas. Countries like Turkey, Iran, Israel, and various Gulf states are heavily involved, each promoting their own vision for Syria's future while responding to the rapidly changing realities on the ground. The potential for a divided Syria is becoming increasingly plausible, especially given Assad's refusal to engage constructively with these nations regarding issues like the Syrian refugee crisis. As diplomatic relations evolve, the balancing act among external players will be crucial in shaping the next phase of Syria's trajectory and its impact on regional stability.
Gideon talks to FT contributing editor Kim Ghattas about the rebel advances in Syria that have taken place in the wake of Israel’s bombardment of President Bashar al-Assad’s Hizbollah allies in Lebanon. Will Assad’s backers in Iran and Russia hold firm and can the ceasefire agreement in neighbouring Lebanon hold? Clip: Channel 4 News