Animal Spirits Podcast Talk Your Book: Will China Win the Trade War?
May 12, 2025
Brendan Ahern, CIO at KraneShares and author of Chinalastnight.com, shares his insights on the shifting landscape of China's economy and tech sector. He delves into how changing investor sentiment towards Chinese stocks is influenced by trade tensions and geopolitical dynamics. The conversation highlights the unique behaviors of Chinese consumers, the impact of semiconductor conflicts on innovation, and the growing appeal of Hong Kong-listed stocks. Ahern breaks down the complexities of navigating this intriguing market for investors.
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Chinese Stocks Thrived Amid Trade War
- Chinese stocks, especially those in tech, performed surprisingly well during Trump's first term despite trade war fears.
- Volatility occurred but the overall period was one of strong performance for Chinese equities and K-Web ETF.
Trade War Shifts Investor Sentiment
- International stocks have gained due to trade war and a falling dollar, benefiting ex-US markets.
- National pride and valuation draw investors back to local markets, complementing US equities.
Media Drives Chinese Stock Prices
- Chinese internet stocks are influenced short term by media and geopolitical sentiment more than earnings.
- Hong Kong-listed shares often react more positively than US-listed shares to news on the same companies.