Tariffs and trade tensions: How can companies manage the fallout?

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May 13, 2025

Nora Szentivanyi, a senior global economist at J.P. Morgan, and Natasha Condon, the Global Head of Trade Sales at J.P. Morgan, delve into the complexities of international trade amidst rising tariffs. They highlight how tariffs disrupt supply chains and influence business sentiment. The discussion emphasizes strategies for companies to manage risks and the crucial role of liquidity. Additionally, they reflect on historical trade tensions and their lessons for today’s economic landscape, helping businesses navigate an ever-changing trade environment.

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INSIGHT

Tariffs Dramatically Shrink US-China Trade

US tariffs on China could shrink bilateral trade by up to 75-80% if sustained at current rates.
Elevated tariffs disrupt global supply chains, with limited substitute capacity and higher costs for sourcing goods.

INSIGHT

Asia Faces Major Tariff Spillovers

Asia faces the largest impact as supply chains are highly integrated with US and China.
Immediate growth supported by front-loading sales, but recessions expected in Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand soon.

ADVICE

Managing Tariff Uncertainty Strategically

Corporates find it very difficult to make strategic decisions amid tariff uncertainty.
They focus on short-term stability, mapping supply chains deeply, and negotiating cost sharing with suppliers and customers.

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“Trade is like water — it will flow through whatever is the path of least resistance.” Tariffs are reshaping international trade by disrupting supply chains and impacting business sentiment. How can companies manage the associated risks, both now and in the longer term? In this episode, senior global economist Nora Szentivanyi and Natasha Condon, global head of Trade Sales, share their insights in a conversation moderated by Grace Howie from the Payments, Trade and Working Capital team.

This episode was recorded on April 23, 2025.

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