207. Bonus: Deal Volume - Perspectives on a slower era in private markets
Jun 6, 2024
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Senior partners Fredrik Dahlqvist and David Quigley, along with partner Brian Vickery, discuss trends in private markets, challenges posed by lower multiples and decreased deal volume, the impact of technology on value creation, and the optimistic outlook for 2024. They explore the importance of adapting to market opportunities, the role of technology in driving innovation, and the focus on value creation amidst higher interest rates.
Lower deal volumes in private markets due to higher interest rates and valuation pressures.
Concentration among large fund managers with opportunities for mid and small-cap funds.
Growing favor for private debt and infrastructure investments by LPs for future growth.
Deep dives
Challenges Faced in Private Equity and Real Estate
Higher interest rates and cost of financing in 2024 put pressure on valuations, leading to lower deal volumes in private equity and real estate globally. This resulted in fewer distributions to LPs and challenges for LPs making commitments. For example, entry multiples in the biotech world decreased significantly from 11.9 to 11.0 turns, impacting overall deal volume.
Market Concentration and Fundraising Trends
In 2023, 41% of capital raised in closed-end funds went to the 25 largest managers, indicating a trend towards concentration. This concentration could be cyclical due to challenges in fundraising favoring larger players, but also a reflection of LPs' preferences for established managers. However, successful mid-cap and small-cap funds also saw growth in capital raising, suggesting a mix of opportunities for both larger and smaller players.
Growth Opportunities in Private Debt and Infrastructure
Private debt and infrastructure are highlighted as growing sectors favored by LPs for future investments. While private debt fundraising saw a 13% decrease in 2023, it remained resilient compared to other asset classes. Infrastructure fundraising faced challenges due to concentration among a few large managers, but there are expectations for a rebound in 2024 with multiple funds seeking significant capital.
Technology Innovation and Value Creation
The adoption of technology in various sectors, including real estate and asset management, remains crucial for value creation and productivity enhancement. Gen AI and other tech solutions are expected to drive growth and efficiency in portfolio companies. Despite challenges, technology-driven solutions are seen as key for driving value and strategic partnerships within the private markets.
Evolving Investment Strategies in Private Markets
Value creation through performance improvement, technology adoption, and deepening client relationships are emphasized for success in 2024. The investment environment requires a focus on early intervention, asset-level value creation across asset classes, and a shift towards real performance growth. Optimism surrounds the gradual recovery of deal markets with credit support and a focus on fundamental earnings momentum for successful transactions.
Future Outlook and Exciting Opportunities
Looking ahead to 2024, there is optimism for deal activity rebounding and a shift towards performance-driven value creation. Opportunities lie in deeper investments in value creation, strategic partnerships, and leveraging technology for growth. The emphasis on fundamental earnings growth, expanded deal markets, and innovative strategies signals an optimistic outlook for private markets in the coming year.
Our guest host for this episode is Brian Vickery, a partner in the practice who is joined by the practice's leaders, senior partners Fredrik Dahlqvist and David Quigley, to discuss key insights from the 2024 edition of our Global Private Markets Review. We hope you enjoy this discussion on the latest trends, challenges, and opportunities in the private capital landscape.