Daniel Davis Deep Dive U.S. Missile Defense Deception /MIT Professor Ted Postol
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Nov 19, 2025 MIT professor Ted Postol, a renowned technical expert on missile defense, exposes the flaws in the U.S. missile defense system. He argues that the touted 61% interception success rate is misleading, likely closer to zero in real-world scenarios. Ted details how tests are rigged for favorable outcomes and highlights the simplicity of countermeasures that can easily defeat current systems. He also discusses the challenges of accurately discriminating between warheads and decoys, revealing significant vulnerabilities that could undermine national defense.
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Test Success Rates Misrepresent Reality
- The claimed GMD interceptor success rates are misleading because tests are heavily controlled and unrepresentative.
- Ted Postol argues an honest estimate of real-world intercept probability is essentially zero given plausible countermeasures.
Sensors' Narrow View Limits Discrimination
- Kill vehicles have tiny focal-plane arrays and extremely narrow fields of view, limiting early discrimination.
- That forces interceptors to close very near the target before they can resolve warhead versus decoys.
Vacuum Makes Decoys Highly Effective
- Simple lightweight decoys and inflated balloons can mimic warhead signatures in space because there's no drag.
- In vacuum, decoys and warheads travel together so infrared and radar cannot reliably distinguish them.