Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes

Trump’s return: What’s next for the war in Ukraine

Dec 6, 2024

Marie Dumoulin, Director of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme, and Jeremy Shapiro, Head of ECFR’s Washington office, delve into the shifting tides of U.S. foreign policy amid Donald Trump’s potential re-election. They discuss the rising conversation around a ceasefire and what it could mean for the war in Ukraine. With Trump’s new envoy, General Kellogg, emerging, they review military strategies and the urgency of European nations to bolster their own security. The pair also highlight the complexities of Ukraine’s mobilization and the geopolitical stakes involved.

42:44

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Episode guests

Jeremy Shapiro

Marie Dumoulin

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

Trump's potential re-election may prioritize his political image over substantial peace efforts in Ukraine, impacting international negotiations.

Ukraine's shift towards negotiating underpins a need for stronger security guarantees, reflecting changing dynamics in European and U.S. support strategies.

Deep dives

Trump's Focus on Political Gains Over Outcomes

Donald Trump’s administration may prioritize its political standing over achieving a lasting resolution in Ukraine. His approach tends to center around the desire to fulfill personal promises, rather than considering the stability or fairness for Ukraine and European security. Discussions highlight that Trump's primary aim is to appear as a peacemaker to the American public, which may lead to superficial negotiations rather than meaningful dialogue. This focus on personal outcomes is seen as a significant concern among policymakers, who worry that it detracts from addressing the core issues at hand.

Intro

4min

Geopolitical Shifts in Ukraine Negotiations

9min

The Struggles of Mobilization and Geopolitical Implications in Ukraine's War

5min

Strategic Futures for Ukraine and European Security

23min

Exploring Ideological Pitfalls and European Security

2min

Its almost three years after Russia invaded Ukraine and, despite small Russian gains in the east, the war looks no closer to reaching a military conclusion. But with Donald Trump’s re-election, change is in the air. Talk of a ceasefire, once taboo, is now common in Washington and even in eastern European capitals – not to mention among government officials in major cities such as Berlin, Paris, and London.

This week Mark Leonard welcomes Marie Dumoulin, director of ECFR’s Wider Europe programme, and Jeremy Shapiro, head of ECFR’s Washington office, to discuss how Trump’s re-election could affect the war in Ukraine, international efforts for peace, and potential end-game scenarios. Which tools could a Trump administration use to bring both sides to the negotiating table? Who is Keith Kellogg, Trump’s pick as Ukraine envoy? How might Europeans help Ukraine defend itself if the US is out of the picture? And how will the different sides use the period until Trump’s inauguration to advance their positions?

This podcast was recorded on 4 December 2024

Bookshelf:

L'Ukraine, la République et les oligarques by Sébastien Gobert

Notre homme à Washington by Régis Genté

The Embrace of Unreason: France, 1914-1920 by Frederick Brown

Imagining Trump 2.0: Six scary policy scenarios for a second term by Célia Belin, Majda Ruge and Jeremy Shapiro

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