UBS On-Air: Market Moves UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The politics of debt'
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Aug 28, 2025 Explore the latest US GDP estimates and their implications for consumer spending. Delve into how job security and political expectations are influencing economic conditions. Discover the resilience of middle-income households and the potential for future growth. Additionally, consider the global political landscape's impact on local economies.
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Q2 GDP Revision And Demand Shift
- The US released another official estimate of Q2 GDP that will be revised further over time.
- Policy expectations shifted domestic demand patterns but still supported Q2 activity.
Middle-Income Balance Sheets Support Spending
- Middle-income US households began the year with relatively strong balance sheets enabling continued spending.
- Shifts in spending due to policy expectations nonetheless tended to favour second-quarter activity.
Claims, Job Security And Spending
- Job security perceptions matter for consumer spending, so continuing jobless claims are important to monitor.
- Claims give an incomplete labour-market picture, and hiring freezes hurt less than increased firing.