RJ Bell's Dream Preview NFL Recap Week 11 + Week 12 Lookahead
RJ Bell, Steve Fezzik, Scott Seidenberg and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL Week 11 recap. The guys also take a look at some upcoming games for Week 12.
NFL Recap Week 11 and Week 12 Lookahead
Overview:This discussion breaks down NFL Week 11's highlights and lowlights while providing predictions and evaluations for Week 12. Hosted by RJ Bell, with insights from Steve Fezzik, Mackenzie Rivers, and Scott Seidenberg, the conversation covers players’ and teams’ performances, statistical anomalies, and betting implications.
Key Highlights and Insights
Quarterbacks Over 40- Discussion: Tom Brady and Drew Brees remain outliers for sustained performance post-40 years of age. Brees declined but maintained efficiency; others, like Brett Favre, struggled once crossing 41.
- Analysis (RJ Bell, 0:34 - 1:32): Quarterbacks over 40 generally face a steep decline. Fezzik cites Favre's pre-40 performance as notable, but the panel agrees performance nosedives past that age.
- Fezzik’s Argument (2:48 - 4:13): With a 3-8 record, the Jets are effectively out of playoff contention. Despite early-season bets favoring them, their collapse was predictable, culminating in a series of losses despite being favored in eight games.
- Key Statistic (Scott Seidenberg, 4:26): The Jets were 3-5 ATS (Against the Spread) as favorites.
- Game Breakdown (8:29 - 12:28): The Bears showed improvement against the Packers, particularly with Caleb Williams displaying mobility and quicker decision-making. However, RJ and others question the sustainability of these changes, suggesting next-week opponents will adjust.
- Key Statistic: Bears scored 19 points on only seven possessions, indicating offensive improvement under a new OC.
- Debate (21:11 - 24:18): The Giants' decision to start DeVito over Locke sparked speculation about tanking for draft positioning. Despite Locke’s $5M contract and experience, the Giants appear to be prioritizing long-term evaluations.
- Insight (Scott Seidenberg): DeVito’s poor metrics make him one of the lowest-rated QBs in years, yet the decision aligns with a "long-term view."
- Lions Superiority (1:15:12 - 1:24:45): With 43.4% DVOA Super Bowl probability, Detroit leads the league in projections. Panelists debate whether the Lions’ edge stems from their path in a weaker NFC compared to stronger AFC contenders like Kansas City and Baltimore.
- Critical Analysis (53:30 - 57:24): Injuries to cornerbacks diminished the Chiefs’ once-elite defense. Mahomes, despite elite status, has struggled statistically, causing doubts about their Super Bowl favoritism.
- Pittsburgh's Unique Wins (37:00): Steelers lead with five wins without scoring a touchdown under Coach Tomlin, demonstrating defensive resilience but offensive mediocrity.
Conclusion
Week 11 revealed the emerging clarity in team and player performances. The Jets’ playoff hopes collapsed, the Bears showed fleeting optimism, and Detroit solidified their NFC dominance. Contrarily, Kansas City faces scrutiny despite their legacy under Mahomes. Meanwhile, the Giants’ controversial QB decisions highlight potential long-term rebuilding. Week 12 sets the stage for pivotal matchups that will further define playoff narratives.
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