Saxo Market Call Big metals rebalancing incoming. Waiting for Godot, a.k.a. US dollar volatility.
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Jan 7, 2026 
In this compelling discussion, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, shares his insights on the upcoming annual rebalancing of major commodity indices and its significant effects on gold, silver, and cocoa prices. The conversation touches on the ascent of copper and nickel driven by supply issues in Chile, and the geopolitical risks affecting oil supply. With the backdrop of bullish market sentiments and Nvidia's advances in autonomous driving, Hansen and host John J. Hardy dive deep into the dynamic forces shaping the commodity landscape.
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Hardware Choke Points Can Supercharge Margins
- Memory and storage chip makers are rallying as hardware supply pinch boosts potential margins dramatically.
- Physical choke points can turn single-digit hardware margins into 20–30% profit spikes, inflating valuations.
Venezuela Revival Favors Services Over Majors
- Venezuela output revival requires massive investment and faces political risk.
- Near-term winners may be service and refinery firms rather than upstream majors due to required spending and execution risk.
Sanctioned Tanker Bella One Incident
- John Hardy described a live story about the sanctioned tanker Bella One being escorted and potentially targeted for seizure.
- He compared the tensions to Cuban Missile Crisis vibes and urged caution as the situation unfolds.