Mixed Signals? Plus Rate Decisions, A Stablecoin Vote & Corporate Debt

This week, we analyze a market sending mixed signals. While ETF flows for both BTC and ETH remain positive and perp funding rates are healthy, the COIN50 Index is down 5.2% on the week. This raises the question: are global markets accurately pricing risk, especially with low volatility in traditional markets (VIX <20) and a slate of major catalysts on the horizon? On the macro front, it’s a packed week for central banks with key interest rate decisions coming from the Fed, Norges, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank. We’ll discuss how the market is recalibrating towards only one Fed rate cut this year and what to watch for in the latest jobless claims, consumer confidence, and housing starts data. We also look ahead to the upcoming July 9th tariff pause deadline and the US/UK trade deal.

We then dive into the dual nature of the corporate treasury strategy. While more companies are announcing allocations to BTC, SOL, and ETH, we examine the implications of the $7 billion debt cliff due for major holders in late 2029 and early 2030, and how increased competition may encourage innovative and potentially risky practices.

The main event today is the expected Senate vote on the GENIUS Act, a pivotal moment for stablecoin legislation in the US. This comes as Circle’s stock approaches all-time highs and DeFi tokens like AAVE, UNI, and SKY are trading well. We’ll explore the value of ETH in this landscape, supported by the massive growth of onchain real-world assets ($24B) and stablecoins ($238B).

Finally, we cover a series of major announcements from Coinbase that highlight real-world adoption. This includes the groundbreaking partnership with Shopify to bring USDC payments via Base to millions of merchants, the launch of the new Coinbase One Card with up to 4% bitcoin back, the all-in-one Coinbase Business platform, and insights from the latest “State of Crypto” report, which firmly places stablecoins at the center of the future of money.

Topics Covered:

• Market Update:
  • Positive BTC & ETH ETF Flows vs. a -5.2% COIN50 Index.
  • Healthy Perp Funding Rates (BTC 7.4%, ETH 9.1%).
  • Risk assessment: VIX vs. BTC Volatility and Gold correlation.
• Global Macro:
  • Central Bank Decisions: Fed, Norges, SNB, Bank of England.
  • Shifting Fed expectations to a single 2025 rate cut.
  • US Economic Data: Jobless claims, consumer confidence, housing starts.
  • Trade & Tariffs: July 9th deadline and US/UK deal talks.
• Corporate Treasury Strategy:
  • Continued adoption of BTC, SOL, and ETH by public companies.
  • The risk may be further out based on the 2029/2030 corporate debt maturities.
• Ethereum & Stablecoin Thesis:
  • The GENIUS Act: US Senate vote expected today.
  • Market Movers: Circle, AAVE, UNI, and SKY performance.
  • Ecosystem Growth: Real-world assets ($24B) and stablecoins ($238B).
• Coinbase News
  • Partnership with Shopify for USDC payments on Base.
  • New Coinbase One Card with 4% bitcoin back.
  • Launch of the Coinbase Business platform.
  • Key takeaways from the "State of Crypto" report.