Larry Johnson & Scott Horton: Risks Trump is Taking with IRAN

The discussion centers on the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), U.S. foreign policy, and global nuclear deterrence dynamics.

1. Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT):
2. Nuclear states promised not to spread nuclear weapons and to eventually disarm (which is not taken seriously), while non-nuclear states agreed not to develop nukes and to stay under IAEA safeguards. However, violations and selective enforcement erode trust in the system.
3. Iran’s Position:
4. Iran remained in the deal even after U.S. withdrawal in 2018 under Trump (influenced by Netanyahu). In response to U.S. sanctions and Israeli sabotage (e.g., assassinations of nuclear scientists, attacks on facilities), Iran increased uranium enrichment (up to 60%)—not to build a bomb, but as a bargaining chip to pressure the U.S. back into negotiations.
5. Assassinations & IAEA:
6. The IAEA’s access gave outside intelligence agencies (allegedly including NSA and Mossad) detailed knowledge of Iran’s nuclear personnel, possibly enabling targeted killings.
7. Lessons for Other Countries:
8. Historical examples (Iraq, Libya, North Korea) suggest that nations cooperating with the West on disarmament are still vulnerable, while those with nuclear weapons (like North Korea) are left alone. Thus, the strategic takeaway for states is: build nukes if you want deterrence.
9. Potential Iranian Shift:
10. There's speculation that Iran may revoke its religious ban (fatwa) on nuclear weapons and pursue a bomb openly, due to repeated betrayals and attacks.
11. Trump’s Leverage:
12. Trump’s military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities may give him a strong hand in future negotiations. Iran might consider returning to talks if offered significant concessions (economic relief, normalization), though it’s more likely they’ll continue enrichment unless the U.S. opts for full regime change—something Trump likely wants to avoid.
13. Russia’s Role:
14. Russia offered Iran a defense pact (similar to one offered to North Korea), but Iran declined, fearing it would permanently sever potential future ties with the West. Some factions in Iran still hope to maintain a balancing act between East and West.

Key Takeaway:

Iran’s restrained behavior amid aggression from the U.S. and Israel is eroding. If Western powers continue to undermine agreements and attack Iran’s infrastructure, Iran may abandon diplomacy and pursue nuclear weapons outright as its only effective deterrent.

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