Hub Podcasts Zachary Siewert on forecasting, CUSMA's future and Canada-U.S. trade talks
Sep 8, 2025
Zachary Siewert, a professional forecaster from Cultivate Labs, shares valuable insights on the evolving role of economic and geopolitical forecasting. He discusses the intricacies of predicting the future of the Canada-U.S. trade relationship, including the potential for CUSMA to be repealed or renegotiated. Siewert highlights how crowd-sourced insights can improve forecasting accuracy and the importance of scenario analysis for businesses and policymakers. His exploration of the intersection between forecasting and strategic decision-making reveals how organizations can thrive amid changing global dynamics.
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Crowds Deliver Predictive Accuracy
- Forecasting uses crowds and repeated numerical probabilities to predict future events more accurately than single experts.
- Averaging diverse forecasts reduces random errors and yields reliable signals for decisions.
Assemble Diverse Forecaster Pools
- Build intellectual and geographic diversity when assembling a forecasting crowd to improve accuracy.
- Include people with different education, professions and news sources to capture varied signals.
Numerate Hobbyists Can Forecast Well
- Pro forecasters exist but many forecasters are numerate hobbyists rather than subject-matter experts.
- Non-experts still perform well because diverse, numerate participants provide complementary information.