Zachary Siewert on forecasting, CUSMA's future and Canada-U.S. trade talks
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Crowd Forecasting Insights
This chapter explores the dynamics of crowd forecasting, emphasizing the varied backgrounds of participants and their impact on predictive accuracy. It contrasts forecasting with polling, highlighting their different objectives and methodologies while illustrating the importance of intellectual diversity to mitigate bias. The discussion also covers the effectiveness of tracking forecasting accuracy and the necessity of fostering independent thought within groups to enhance outcomes.
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