FiveThirtyEight Politics How To Read Polls In 2024
Sep 26, 2024
Nathaniel Rakich, Senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight and a polling expert, breaks down essential skills for interpreting polls in the hectic lead-up to the presidential election. He discusses the importance of pollster credibility, the impact of funding bias, and how to navigate the nuances of registered versus likely voters. Rakich also touches on the often-misunderstood margin of error and the necessity of comparing polls judiciously. Finally, he emphasizes the power of averaging poll data to capture true voter sentiment amid the chaos.
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Check Pollsters
- Check a pollster's track record and transparency.
- Use FiveThirtyEight's pollster ratings to assess reliability.
Methodology Matters Less
- Don't dismiss online polls or assume phone polls are superior.
- Pollsters adapt methods; focus on quality and transparency.
Partisan Polls
- Be aware of partisan sponsors and their potential bias.
- Consider why a poll is released and the narrative it promotes.