Judge Glock, Director of Research at the Manhattan Institute and author of "The Dead Pledge," dives into the complex landscape of American homeownership. He discusses the historical roots of 30-year mortgages and how low pandemic rates shaped today's market. The conversation reveals challenges like declining home sales and high mortgage rates, alongside the need for urban density solutions, especially in cities like Los Angeles. Glock advocates for upzoning to tackle restrictive housing regulations and highlights the broader economic implications of these trends.
Despite the challenges of rising prices and mortgage rates, homeownership rates in the U.S. remain stable at around 66%.
The historical context of the 30-year mortgage and government policies have created a system that hinders affordability and mobility in the housing market.
Deep dives
Current State of Homeownership
Homeownership rates in the U.S. remain around 66%, which aligns closely with historical averages. Despite rising home prices and mortgage rates surpassing 7%, the overall rate indicates that a majority of Americans still own their homes. The challenge lies not in the ability to purchase but in the prohibitive costs associated with homeownership today compared to past decades. This affordability crisis limits the ability of prospective homeowners to enter the market, effectively decreasing mobility and reducing home sales.
Impact of Mortgage Rates on Mobility
The significant climb in mortgage rates has made it economically unwise for many homeowners to move, locking them into low-rate mortgages obtained during the pandemic. Those who secured rates below 3% now face the daunting prospect of over 7% rates if they choose to sell and purchase another home. This shift has created a situation where fewer homes are sold, indicating broader economic concerns as families find it more challenging to transition. The lack of mobility in the housing market exacerbates the issues surrounding affordable homeownership.
Public Policy and Mortgage Market Dynamics
The peculiarities of the 30-year mortgage product in the U.S. have roots in public policy that dates back to the 1930s, designed to stabilize housing markets. Government involvement has created a system where risks are often socialized, and profits are privatized, leading to taxpayer burdens in times of financial strain, as witnessed during previous crises. Comparatively, other countries have developed different mortgage structures that may offer more stability and mobility in their housing markets. The current U.S. approach, characterized by significant government subsidies, perpetuates high housing costs without necessarily increasing ownership rates.