Midyear Market Outlook '25 (Ep. 143)

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, provide a midyear market review and outlook for 2025. Reflecting on major surprises in the first half of the year, including unexpected tariff announcements and subsequent reversals, they analyze market performance in the first half of the year against historical trends. The discussion highlights market resilience, key economic indicators, historical market trends, and strategic insights into navigating the second half of 2025 effectively.

Key Takeaways

• Unexpected Tariff Volatility
   
  • The Liberation Day announcement by President Trump of extremely high tariffs surprised markets significantly. Equally surprising was how rapidly these tariffs were paused, causing abrupt swings in market sentiment.
• Investor Sentiment Shifts
   
  • Many investors who were initially bearish following the tariff announcements underestimated the market's capacity to rebound strongly, emphasizing the importance of managing emotional biases and market timing.
• Market Resilience and Momentum
   
  • Despite early setbacks, the markets showed resilience, demonstrating strong recovery patterns consistent with historical trends.
• Bull Still Charging
   
  • The average bull market lasts about five years, but the current one we’re in hasn’t lasted even three yet—something to keep in mind next time the market experiences a setback.
• Fed Stays on Pause
   
  • Market volatility kept the Fed on the sidelines in the first half of 2025, but we may see rate cuts by the fall if the markets stay on track.
• A Big Beautiful Boost
   
  • Though the recently passed Big Beautiful Bill will likely add to the deficit in the coming years, it could also provide a boon to the markets in the back half of the year.
• Strategic Insights for Second Half 2025
   
  • Historical market trends indicate a potentially strong performance for the latter half of 2025. Investors are advised to focus on long-term strategies and diversification, and remain cautious of headline-driven market reactions.

Want access to Carson Investment Research Team’s full Midyear Market Outlook? Head to https://www.carsongroup.com/market-outlook to download the full report. 

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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