Rock Stock Recap: What Really Matters Next for Lithium Prices

Lithium Market Reset? August Scoreboard, Price Drivers & Developers To Watch (with Howard, Rodney & Matt)

After a bullish summer for mining equities, we break down the August 31 lithium scoreboard, the bounce in chemical producers and spodumene names, and what really matters next for lithium prices. We cover inventories in China, the impact of CapEx cuts, and why low-cost producers and DMS-only developers may be the best risk/reward right now.

This episode also features a catchup interview with Q2 Metals' (TSXV: QTWO) CEO, Alicia Milne, and VP Exploration, Neil McCallum following their September 4th press release on the Cisco Lithium Project in Quebec, Canada. Topics include: Q2’s C$26M financing, increased drill activity with multiple rigs, upcoming assay results, infill drilling strategy, and the roadmap toward their first mineral resource estimate (targeted Q1 2026). Neil details the latest metallurgical testing (HLS/DMS), recovery rates, and next steps in bulk sampling, while Alicia outlines marketing and investor outreach plans across Hong Kong, Korea, Japan, New York, London, and Zurich.

What You’ll Learn:
- Market Check: Why the rally looks more like a technical correction than a new supercycle—so far.
- Price Drivers: Why falling inventories (days of supply in China) matter more than headlines.
- Strategy: Focus on low-cost brine & hard-rock producers and DMS-only developers (lower CapEx/opex).
- CapEx Crunch: How investment slowdowns set up supply tightness 2–4 years out.
- Energy Storage Boom: Solar + BESS economics improving fast; tech leaps from 2 MWh to 5–9 MWh containers.
- Due Diligence: Watch cash flow vs. reported costs—reporting standards vary widely in lithium mining.
- Q2 Metals Deep Dive: Financing, drill program ramp-up, Cisco exploration update, metallurgical test results, and global investor roadshow plans.

Companies & Themes Mentioned:
Producers/Developers: Lithium Argentina, Sigma Lithium, Atlantic Lithium, Q2 Metals, Lithium Ionic, Atlas Lithium, Core Lithium, Sayona–Piedmont (NAL), Vulcan, Standard Lithium, POSCO.
Topics: DMS vs. flotation, DLE brine, spodumene, inventories in China, incentive prices, CapEx cuts, EV batteries, BESS, solar + storage, rare earths (MP Materials, Lynas).

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📖 Chapters
(00:00) Introduction
(03:18) Bottom Call & Scoreboard
(04:26) YTD Leaders & Equity Signals
(05:10) Strategy: Low-Cost Producers & DMS
(07:40) Price Outlook: Inventories & Incentives
(09:38) Capex Cuts & 2-4 Year Setup
(11:06) Solar Boom & Storage Demand
(14:45) Mining Margins & Reporting
(16:37) Scoreboard Segments, Raises & M&A
(20:38) Vetting Developers & Key Names
(24:31) Quebec: Sayona-Piedmont & NAL
(27:11) Q2 Metals
(30:16) Assay Results and Exploration Strategy
(33:25) Winter Drill Program and Resource Estimate Goals
(34:35) Assays Beyond Lithium
(35:39) Metallurgical Testing and Results
(37:41) Next Steps in Metallurgy and Bulk Sampling
(41:57) Exploration Focus and Upcoming News Flow
(43:31) Permitting, Camp Development, and Operations Update
(44:14) Marketing and Global Investor Outreach
(45:30) MRE Timeline
(45:46) Closing Remarks

🌍 Links

- Read Matt’s research blog: https://blog.rkequity.com/
- Sign up for the Lithium Ion Bull newsletter: https://rkequity.com/
- Catch our 2.5-hour Spaces replay with 1,500+ listeners: https://x.com/i/spaces/1kvJpMDgAyLxE

- For Q2 Metals research coverage (Canaccord, Argonaut), email: rockstockchannel@rkequity.com
- Q2 Metals Website: https://www.q2metals.com/
- Follow Q2 Metals on X: https://x.com/Q2Metals | LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/company/q2-metals-corp

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel
Podcast:
  Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172
  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq
X (Twitter):
  Howard: https://x.com/LithiumIonBull
  Rodney: https://x.com/RodneyHooper13
  Matt: https://x.com/matt_fernley

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DISCLAIMER

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Rodney and Howard are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity’s website https://www.rkequity.com

Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein