The Circuit EP 123: Marvell ASIC TAM, ASIC Challenges Remain, More Semi 2.0
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Jun 23, 2025 Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg dive into the fascinating world of custom semiconductors, highlighting Marvell's recent event and its tech edge over competitors. They confront the unpredictable landscape of ASIC production for tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft. The discussion touches on the complex challenges of chip design for hyperscalers and the persistent relevance of GPUs. They also examine the semiconductor industry's growth, driven by AI, and the rising costs in manufacturing, emphasizing innovations like chiplets in response to economic pressures.
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Marvell's Custom ASIC Challenges
- Marvell raised its TAM with promising revenue opportunities in custom ASICs, but the ASIC business remains cyclical and unpredictable.
- The relationship with hyperscalers is complex; scaling decisions depend heavily on workload performance validation over years.
Hyperscaler Influence on Custom ASICs
- Hyperscalers' custom chips take years to develop and ramp up, with investment decisions delayed until real workload performance is confirmed.
- Secretive workloads make it difficult for custom ASIC designers to accurately predict chip performance during design stages.
GPUs Outperform ASICs in Flexibility
- GPUs remain essential and outperform ASICs in adaptability to unforeseen AI software breakthroughs.
- Hyperscalers maintain hybrid computing with GPUs and ASICs, evaluating constantly which best fits evolving workloads.