Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes The world in 2026
Jan 9, 2026
Julien Barnes-Dacey, Alex Vines, Andrew Small, and Jana Kobzová bring their expertise to discuss Europe's looming challenges in 2026. They explore the prospects of a ceasefire in Ukraine and the impact of Iran's protests on regional stability. The conversation shifts to Africa's complex security landscape, highlighting critical conflicts and economic struggles. Lastly, they delve into China's growing influence and the geopolitical tensions surrounding it, forecasting a year of relative calm—but cautioning about potential flashpoints ahead.
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Russia's Economic Strain Shapes War Choices
- Russia may face hard trade-offs in 2026 between financing the war and domestic spending as export revenues fall.
- Jana Kobzova warns Moscow's economy is weakening and will shape its military choices.
Ceasefire Odds And Russian Conditions
- A ceasefire in Ukraine in 2026 is roughly 50-50 despite active diplomacy.
- Jana Kobzova notes Russia conditions peace on Ukraine ceding about 25% of Donbass.
Russia Could Target Armenian Elections
- Russia may try to influence Armenia's parliamentary elections as it did in Moldova.
- Jana Kobzova cautions Moscow could invest heavily to shape outcomes against pro-European leaders.
