Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Will Rising Unemployment Trigger A Recession? | Michael Kantrowitz
Jun 11, 2024
Economist Michael Kantrowitz discusses the potential impact of rising unemployment on the economy, exploring recession risks and market implications. He introduces the HOPE framework to track economic indicators and predicts nuanced outcomes. The conversation dives into employment data, housing market trends, equity market analysis, and factor investing strategies. They analyze the correlation between economic data, interest rates, and stock prices, discussing potential triggers for a recession and offering advice on financial planning.
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Recession Indicator
- A 10% rise in unemployed people historically signals a recession.
- This metric recently surpassed 10%, suggesting a potential recession.
HOPE Framework Explained
- The HOPE framework (Housing, Orders, Profits, Employment) analyzes economic responses to monetary policy changes.
- It tracks recession risk by examining these sectors in sequence.
Housing Affordability
- High mortgage rates and rising home prices create unique affordability challenges.
- This differs from past high-rate environments where home prices weren't a major concern.