Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to tame inflation by cooling the economy with its aggressive "higher for longer" interest rates and Quantitative Tightening, the US has managed to avoid recession.
Consumer spending has held up, largely due to the "strong" jobs market.
But is that likely to remain the case going forward?
And if not, if unemployment starts to rise significantly, what should we expect? Mass layoffs? A recession? A correction in the financial markets or home prices?
Or none of these?
To find out, we have the good fortune to speak today with Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist & managing director at Piper Sandler. He's created the HOPE framework, which provides a way for us to track recession risk, and gives us the ability to project what's likely to happen next for the economy.
Michael's forecast is surprisingly nuanced and contains elements both bulls & bears should heed.
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