School of War Ep 128: Stephen Kotkin on Russia and Ukraine (War in Ukraine #1)
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Jun 18, 2024 
Stephen Kotkin discusses the war in Ukraine, major victories, regime change in Russia, and the cultural identity of Europe. Topics include Ukraine's defense, revitalizing NATO, humiliating Russia, and maintaining alliances during negotiations with authoritarian regimes like China.
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Four Victories of 2022
- 2022 delivered four key victories: Ukraine defended its sovereignty, the West united, Russia was strategically humiliated, and US-European policy on China consolidated.
- These victories were unexpected and presented a crucial opportunity to de-escalate the conflict.
Triumphalism at Halifax
- Aaron McLean recalls the 2022 Halifax Security Forum's triumphalism after Russia's initial failures.
- This sentiment, he notes, ignored potential Western vulnerabilities and foreshadowed the challenges of 2023.
Misinterpreting Kharkiv
- Stephen Kotkin asserts Ukraine's battlefield successes were overstated, particularly the Kharkiv offensive, which was misrepresented as a sophisticated operation.
- This misinformation fueled the illusion that Ukraine could fully reclaim its territory, influencing policy towards a counteroffensive.