Former Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell discusses the shift in sentiment among central bankers at the IMF meeting. Powell signals a delay in rate cuts, contrasting previous assumptions. Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England considers inflation dynamics, potentially leading to earlier rate cuts. NAB's Rodrigo Catril joins to analyze the latest data and central banks' statements.
Central bankers like Jerome Powell are signaling potential delays in rate cuts, highlighting cautious approach.
Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England suggests a possible earlier rate cut amidst discussions of inflation and rising unemployment.
Deep dives
Shift in Central Bank Strategies
Central bankers like Jerome Powell and Andrew Bailey are adjusting their strategies, hinting at potential delays in rate cuts. Jerome Powell is cautious, mentioning the need for more time before implementing cuts. On the other hand, Andrew Bailey positions the Bank of England to act post the Fed, indicating a shift in previous messages. The IMF's revised US growth forecast and a notable rise in UK unemployment may influence these shifts.
US Economic Performance and Fed's Outlook
The focus on US economic data reveals a growing trend in inflation, emphasizing sustained price pressures. Despite early strong indicators, the economy is predicted to slow down throughout the year, impacting rate cut expectations. The IMF's upgraded US growth forecast to 2.7% from 2.1% in January further supports the notion of US exceptionalism.
Global Economic Trends and Policy Implications
Global economic evaluations indicate varying growth trajectories, with Europe experiencing a slight downgrade in growth forecasts by the IMF. China's economic performance relies heavily on government-led investments, while private sectors like consumer spending remain subdued. In the UK, rising unemployment rates and persistent services inflation challenge the central bank's rate cut considerations.
There’s been a significant shift in sentiment from central bankers at the IMF meeting in Washington. Jerome Powell, who had previously seemed happy to accept rate cuts relatively soon, is now signalling it will take longer. IMF forecasts that significantly upgraded US growth for this year might have added to the pressure to cool things a little. Meanwhile, Andrew Bailey from the Bank of England, who it was assumed was prepared to wait till after the Fed, is now talking about inflation coming down, suggesting a cut sooner might be possible. Perhaps a sharp rise in unemployment influenced his thinking. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through the latest data and words from the mouths of central bank speakers.