Ask The Compound Will Housing Prices Fall In 2026?
Dec 3, 2025
Bill Sweet, the Chief Financial Officer at Ritholtz, joins the discussion with insights on housing prices and retirement strategies. They delve into the potential for a housing market decline by 2026 and analyze the resilience of the market despite limited supply. Bill shares expert advice on Roth strategies, citing Gen Z's growing preference for Roth accounts due to long-term benefits. The conversation also explores the trade-offs between renting and owning in retirement, providing practical tips for managing finances effectively.
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Housing Affordability Is Terrible But Prices Still Rise
- U.S. housing affordability is at historically poor levels after pandemic price gains and higher mortgage rates.
- Yet national prices keep hitting all-time highs, showing unusual market resilience.
Home Price Crashes Are Rare Nationwide
- A buyer strike and slow activity suggest demand fatigue, but nationwide crashes are unlikely.
- Historical data shows U.S. nominal home prices fell in only two major episodes since 1950.
Local Markets Diverge Sharply
- Price moves are highly local: metros that soared in 2020–22 are seeing declines now.
- Some markets like Austin and parts of Florida are down sharply from their peaks.