Iran Reacts to Trump’s Victory, With Ray Takeyh (Transition 2025, Episode 8)
Jan 7, 2025
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Ray Takeyh, the Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses Iran's reactions to Trump's election. He highlights the complexities of the nuclear negotiations and Iran's precarious geopolitical situation amid economic turmoil. There’s an intriguing analysis of the Trump administration's dual strategy of diplomacy and sanctions, and how previous U.S. negotiations influence current dynamics. Takeyh also reflects on Jimmy Carter's foreign policy legacy regarding Iran, challenging conventional perceptions.
Iran's response to Trump's victory reflects a complex mix of disappointment and a newfound willingness to engage in dialogue without preconditions.
Geopolitical setbacks and domestic economic crises compel Iran to reassess its strategies and increase focus on internal stability and regional relationships.
Deep dives
Iran's Mixed Reaction to Trump's Victory
The Iranian government's response to Donald Trump's election victory shows a combination of disappointment and opportunism. While there is hesitance among certain factions, there exists a willingness to engage in dialogue with the United States, unlike the previous administration where dialogue was tied to preconditions like rejoining the Iran nuclear deal. Given the diminished relevance of the nuclear agreement, which has largely lapsed, conversations may proceed without such constraints. This shift marks a significant change in Iran's approach, possibly indicating both a desire to lift sanctions and to explore what mutual concessions could be negotiated.
Current State of Iran's Regional Influence
Recent geopolitical developments have significantly weakened Iran's influence in the region, particularly in relation to its allies and proxies. The fall of key allies, such as the Assad regime, and severe setbacks suffered by Hezbollah have led to a humanitarian and strategic crisis for Iran's regional ambitions. These losses have undercut Iran's long-term strategy of using proxy groups to project power across the Middle East and established its once crucial land corridors. Such challenges compel Iran to reevaluate its strategies and tactics, focusing increasingly on internal stability and rebuilding its relationships within the region.
Challenges Facing Iran's Domestic Situation
Iran is currently grappling with severe domestic issues that exacerbate its international challenges. Economic hardships, including an energy crisis that has led to school and office closures, coupled with mismanagement, place significant pressure on the Iranian government. Such economic woes often provoke public discontent, as evidenced by ongoing strikes and low-level protests that express dissatisfaction with the regime. This unrest poses a considerable threat to the stability of the regime, making diplomatic engagement more attractive as a means of alleviating economic pressures.
The Trump Administration's Potential Strategy Toward Iran
The Trump administration's approach to Iran is expected to build on past strategies, emphasizing negotiated solutions to the nuclear issue. Despite a desire for a new agreement, the administration will likely implement a framework akin to its earlier 'maximum pressure' campaign, focusing on enforcing existing sanctions and limiting Iran's oil exports. This would include tightening enforcement against countries that purchase Iranian oil and using diplomatic channels to apply pressure on them, notably China and India. The administration's ultimate goal appears to remain a comprehensive agreement addressing both Iran's nuclear capabilities and regional activities, albeit this may require some degree of backchannel communications and collaboration with allies.
Ray Takeyh, the Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at CFR, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss how Trump’s victory is being viewed in Iran and whether a return to “maximum pressure” will force Tehran to agree to limit its nuclear program. This episode is the eighth in a special TPI series on the U.S. 2025 presidential transition and is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.