The President’s Inbox Iran Reacts to Trump’s Victory, With Ray Takeyh (Transition 2025, Episode 8)
Jan 7, 2025
Ray Takeyh, the Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, discusses Iran's reactions to Trump's election. He highlights the complexities of the nuclear negotiations and Iran's precarious geopolitical situation amid economic turmoil. There’s an intriguing analysis of the Trump administration's dual strategy of diplomacy and sanctions, and how previous U.S. negotiations influence current dynamics. Takeyh also reflects on Jimmy Carter's foreign policy legacy regarding Iran, challenging conventional perceptions.
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Episode notes
Iran's Reaction to Trump's Victory
- Iranians show interest in dialogue with the U.S., without preconditions.
- The expired JCPOA necessitates new negotiations, not a revival.
Iran's Negotiation Strategy
- Iran may negotiate to assess U.S. concessions and stall for time.
- Negotiations can benefit Iran by slowing sanctions and providing cover for nuclear program acceleration.
Iran's Weakened Regional Influence
- Iran's regional influence has been severely damaged in a short period.
- The collapse of the Assad regime disrupted Iran's link to Hezbollah.
