Catch Me If You Can: EU Trails US On Clean-Tech Policy
Oct 30, 2024
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Antoine Vagneur-Jones and Matthew Hales from BNEF's Trade and Supply Chains team unpack the global clean technology race. They delve into the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act's transformative impact on trade relations and how Europe is responding with its Net-Zero Industry Act. The duo discusses the effectiveness of tariffs and the challenges of competing with Chinese manufacturers. They also explore the implications of impending U.S. elections on clean technology policies and the competitive landscape for both sides of the Atlantic.
The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act significantly boosts domestic clean technology manufacturing through substantial subsidies, contrasting sharply with the EU's weaker support mechanisms.
Both the U.S. and EU face challenges with their tariff strategies aimed at Chinese products, reflecting a complex geopolitical landscape impacting local industries.
Deep dives
Impact of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act
The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, launched in 2022, acts as a significant catalyst for the clean technology sector by providing ample subsidies aimed at re-industrializing America. Its local content requirements encourage domestic manufacturing, primarily benefiting U.S. firms while potentially limiting foreign involvement. This policy includes substantial tax credits, particularly for electric vehicle and battery production, which has led to a wave of investments in various states, especially those historically considered as 'red states.' Despite facing scrutiny, especially from the Republican Party, the core structure of the Inflation Reduction Act appears stable, though future access to tax credits may become more restricted depending on election outcomes.
EU's Response to the U.S. Legislation
In response to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, the EU introduced the Net Zero Industry Act, aiming for 40% of clean technology production to occur within its borders by 2030. However, the EU lacks comparable public funding, providing six times less support for clean technology than the U.S., which diminishes its competitive edge. This legislation faces pressures as businesses shift to the U.S. for favorable manufacturing conditions, prompting the EU to reconsider its subsidy frameworks to retain industries. As discussions around tariffs and subsidies intensify, European policymakers are under growing pressure to enhance their manufacturing capacity and investment incentives.
Tariffs and Trade Dynamics
Both the U.S. and EU have imposed tariffs on clean technology imports, primarily targeting Chinese products to safeguard their own industries. U.S. tariffs on Chinese solar equipment and electric vehicles are intended to create a cost barrier against increasing imports, although this has yet to yield significant domestic manufacturing success. Conversely, the EU has initiated lower tariffs but remains vigilant about maintaining competitive trade practices, recently implementing a 45.3% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles. These tariff strategies reflect a broader geopolitical competition and a desire to bolster local manufacturing while navigating complex international supply chains.
Challenges for Local Manufacturing in Clean Tech
The current landscape reveals significant challenges for enhancing local clean technology manufacturing in both the U.S. and EU. While the U.S. fosters a rapid industrial rebirth through generous subsidies, the EU struggles with insufficient funding and fragmented policies that hinder coherent clean tech advancements. Moreover, the EU's historical reliance on external suppliers has left it vulnerable, prompting discussions about nurturing homegrown manufacturing capabilities. As both regions strive for energy independence, the path forward will require robust, strategic investments and unified policy frameworks to effectively compete with dominant Chinese manufacturers.
Tariffs and subsidies loom large in the energy transition. The US Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, has been of global importance, changing trade relationships and causing some governments to rethink their domestic policies. The European Union responded by introducing the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA), although it has fewer subsidies and trade barriers than its transatlantic counterpart.
On today’s show, Dana speaks with Antoine Vagneur-Jones and Matthew Hales from BNEF’s Trade and Supply Chains team. As they discuss key findings from the report US Clean-Tech Industrial Policy Leaves EU Behind – For Now, they look at the risks the IRA faces in the upcoming US election, the relative effectiveness of US and EU tariffs, and whether western markets can realistically expect to challenge Chinese manufacturers on cost competitiveness.
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com