Macro Horizons
The One Where They Talk About the Outlook
Dec 8, 2023
Discussion on rate cuts, rate forecasts for 2024, risks to US rates outlook, potential threat of unemployment rate surge, risks to the economy and financial markets, Federal Reserve's approach to inflation and term premium.
24:07
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Quick takeaways
- The Fed is expected to delay rate cuts until the second half of 2024, showing stubbornness and hawkishness in fighting high inflation.
- Top risks for the US rates outlook in 2024 include regulation in the treasury market, suppressed foreign demand for treasuries, geopolitical events, and sticky inflation putting rate hikes back on the table.
Deep dives
Outlook for the Treasury Market in 2024
The podcast discusses the outlook for the treasury market in 2024, focusing on the timing of the first rate cuts by the Fed. The expectation is that the Fed will be able to delay rate cuts until the second half of the year. The podcast also highlights the degree of stubbornness on the part of monetary policy makers and their hawkishness in fighting high inflation. The forecast for 2024 includes rate cuts, two-year yields at approximately 3%, and a re-steeping of the 2s 10s curve.
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