The Outlier Trading Podcast Doomberg Everything Is Fragile Energy, War, AI, and the Next Global Shock | The Outlier Podcast
Aug 13, 2025
Doomberg, a savvy writer from Doomberg.com, dives deep into the fragility of global systems. He discusses the rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, focusing on supply chains and energy pricing. The conversation shifts to the transformative impact of AI in the energy sector, particularly in drilling technologies. Doomberg critiques energy policies and their failures, revealing the delicate balance of market dynamics and environmental risks. The talk concludes with predictions about upcoming global events, reflecting a need for strategic foresight.
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Escalation Dominance Shapes Trade Leverage
- The U.S. has 'escalation dominance' over many key allies, letting it extract favorable trade terms.
- That dominance explains why tariffs and onshoring succeed with countries hosting U.S. bases.
China's Supply-Chain Monopoly Had Cheap Costs
- China used environmental laxity and financial tools to dominate early critical supply chains.
- The West partly enabled this by offshoring production and failing to price environmental and security costs.
Energy Markets Signal Glut, Not Scarcity
- Energy prices point to abundant supply: cheap coal, cheap gas, and rising OPEC output.
- Doomberg estimates a long-run oil equilibrium near $55 and sees $50 oil as plausible.