HIGH LEVEL VOLATILITY & OPTIONS TRADING w/ the Experts
Jan 12, 2023
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Former pit traders Cem Karsan, Anthony Crudele, and Jimmy Jude discuss trading volatility, options, and hedging strategies. They tackle market dynamics, advanced trading techniques, position hedging nuances, and navigating volatile markets. They also share wild trading floor tales and tease a potential two-part series on options trading.
Trading volatility involves analyzing probabilities and distributions to predict asset movements beyond bullish or bearish trends.
Options are crucial in trading volatility to access different points of an asset's distribution in terms of time and value.
The rise in zero-day-to-expiration trading volumes can be leveraged by contrarian strategies to identify market inefficiencies.
Deep dives
Trading Volatility as Probabilities and Distributions
Trading volatility involves betting on various outcomes within an asset class by analyzing probabilities and distributions. It allows for a flexible approach to predicting asset movements beyond just bullish or bearish trends. Options play a vital role in trading volatility as they enable investors to access different points of an asset's distribution in terms of time and value. By understanding and trading volatility, investors can wager on specific outcomes based on available information and market positioning.
Market Environment and Positioning in Volatility Trading
The current market state reveals lesser hedge positions on the index level compared to the previous year, signaling a potential unpreparedness for a market decline. The shift towards more speculative trades and a decline in traditional hedging methods has impacted market dynamics. Changes in volatility are influenced by factors like the level of hedging, risk management strategies, and the liquidity of the market in response to position shifts.
Impact of Short-Term Options Trading and Market Trends
The rise in zero-day-to-expiration trading volumes is driven by consistent speculative buyers affecting institutional trading behaviors. Contrarian trading strategies have proven effective in identifying overbought or oversold markets, particularly evident in the tech sector. As investors crowd in certain areas, opportunities arise for contrarians to leverage market inefficiencies and position themselves advantageously amidst shifting market structures.
Effects of Hedging Positions
Hedging positions in the market can impact asset support or decline. Hedging alters the distribution of assets rather than straightforwardly causing moves up or down. Heavy put positions can lead to increased support and potential for bigger gains or liquidation in case of significant declines. Hedging creates a distributional shift towards a more fat-tail left distribution.
Market Seasonality Impacting Trading Dynamics
Market behaviors around certain months, like March historically, are influenced by factors such as end-of-year reinvestment, lowered trading activity during holidays, and positive structural flows post-holidays. Seasonal effects create potentially favorable trading scenarios, particularly in the January-February timeframe. The transition from year-end to start-of-year periods can drive significant market movements shaped by fundamental trading dynamics.
How To Trade Volatility Like The Pros with former Pit Traders, Cem Karsan, Anthony Crudele, and Jimmy Jude. Cem is the Founder and Senior Managing Partner of Kai Volatility Advisors. Jimmy is a former floor trader and is now an independent futures and options trader. Follow Cem on Twitter: https://twitter.com/jam_croissant Follow Jimmy on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jimmyjude13 […]
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