Messari's Unqualified Opinions Theses 2026: Ethereum, L2s, and the Battle for the Everything Exchange | Messari's Fully Diluted
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Dec 18, 2025 Matt Ney, a Solana specialist at Messari, dives into the exciting evolution of Solana and its ambitions to become an on-chain powerhouse, reminiscent of the NASDAQ. He discusses Solana's recent strides in trading innovations and on-chain exchanges. The panel also explores the impact of the Robinhood Chain and how Arbitrum and Base are taking the lead in the L2 race. Predictions for 2026 spark hot debates on MegaETH's potential and L1/L2 dynamics, making for a thrilling discussion on the future of blockchain.
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Ethereum Reinvigorated By Upgrades And Flows
- Ethereum regained developer momentum in 2025 with two major upgrades and renewed focus on L1 improvements.
- Institutional flows (ETFs, DATs) and dominance in stablecoins/RWAs reinforced Ethereum's moat despite earlier sentiment lows.
Rollups Capture Transaction Volume, Not Value
- L2 transaction share climbed to 95% in November and is trending toward 99% as costs compress after EIP-4844 and follow-up upgrades.
- Despite activity shifting to rollups, most value and TVL remain on Ethereum L1 for now.
Arbitrum's Revenue-First Strategy
- Arbitrum strengthened in 2025 via Arbitrum One and Orbit, focusing on revenue generation and reinvestment through the DAO.
- Native stablecoin experiments and Robinhood chain partnership are major 2026 catalysts to watch.