If China Attacks Taiwan: Beijing Risks Social Instability in a Taiwan Conflict

Today’s episode is the second in a three-part series that examines the potential consequences for China if a military operation against Taiwan were to fail. In each of these episodes, we’re speaking with authors of a recently published German Marshall Fund study of the possible costs that China would incur across four different, but interrelated areas: the Chinese economy, the military, Chinese social stability, and international costs. Our podcast today focuses on the potential costs for domestic social stability. 

To recap, the study considered two scenarios occurring in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalated into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military were killed, US intervention eventually forced China to de-escalate.  In the second scenario, a conflict escalated into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also US forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces were degraded and eventually withdrew after suffering many tens of thousands of casualties. 

Joining us today are Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Jake Rinaldi. Sheena is an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin and visiting research faculty at the US Army War College. Jake is an associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation.

Timestamps: 
[00:00] Introduction  
[02:11] Why This Matters to US Policymakers 
[04:37] Managing Social Stability During Conflict with Taiwan  
[08:01] How the CCP Identifies and Suppresses Sources of Instability
[10:44] Social Stability Organizations and Institutions  
[15:06] Domestic Pressures & Potential Party Responses 
[19:00] Estimating Public Support for Reunification 
[23:09] Scenario 3: Protracted Conventional Conflict 
[26:55] Lessons Learned from COVID Lockdowns 
[31:28] Long-Term Implications for Stability Post-Conflict