Odd Lots Dan Wang On the Extraordinary Moment for China's Party Congress
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Oct 13, 2022 Dan Wang, a China technology analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, provides critical insights into the upcoming National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. He outlines the unique challenges facing China, including economic downturns, strict COVID policies, and external pressures from the U.S. on technology dealings. The conversation delves into the implications of these issues for China's future leadership and international relations, as well as the impact on its beleaguered tech industry and real estate sector.
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China's Economic Challenges
- The Chinese economy faces multiple challenges, including COVID-zero policies and a property downturn.
- These issues are impacting consumption and overall sentiment, with exports softening.
20th Party Congress Agenda
- The 20th Party Congress, primarily an internal meeting, focuses on personnel decisions for the next five years.
- Key questions include Xi Jinping's leadership, Politburo composition, and potential successor appointments.
Xi's Power and Personnel
- Some China watchers believe Xi Jinping's power has grown so much that personnel changes may not matter.
- Xi's influence might overshadow any potential reformist tendencies of newly appointed officials.