Macro Voices MacroVoices #284 Lakshman Achuthan: Economic cycle is turning...but what about assets?
Aug 12, 2021
Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, shares his expert insights on the shifting tides of economic indicators, warning of a potential downturn. Grant Williams, a seasoned financial analyst, joins in to discuss the implications for various asset classes, including equities, gold, and oil. They dive into the intricacies of economic cycles, risk management strategies, and the future of currency systems, contrasting traditional fiat alternatives with emerging digital currencies. Expect a deep dive into navigating turbulent economic waters!
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Economic Cycle Decelerations and Market Impact
- Lakshman Achuthan discusses various economic cycle indicators, including business, global industrial, and inflation cycles.
- He notes decelerations and potential downturns in these cycles, impacting commodities, inflation, and market prices.
Distinguishing Cyclical Events from Secular Trends
- Secular trends, like long-term disinflationary pressures, are difficult to discern in real-time.
- Cyclical events, lasting several quarters, can be mistaken for secular changes, making timing crucial.
Global Industrial Downturn and PMI Lag
- Global industrial growth has entered a downturn, impacting commodity prices and PMIs.
- PMIs, while closely watched, lag actual industrial growth and offer limited predictive value.