How Canada’s Economy, Rates Have Diverged From US: Macro Matters
Aug 22, 2024
auto_awesome
Stuart Paul, an economist for Bloomberg Economics with expertise in US and Canadian economies, discusses the complexities of Canada’s current economic landscape. He highlights the impact of immigration on housing crises and rising mortgage rates. Paul dives into the unique monetary policy frameworks of the Bank of Canada, contrasting them with other central banks. He also analyzes Canada’s fiscal sustainability, revealing its advantage over the US, and addresses the delicate balancing act of managing interest rates amid economic growth concerns.
Canada's interest rate cuts are strategically aimed at supporting consumer spending amid upcoming mortgage resets and potential recession risks.
Unlike the U.S., Canada's stronger fiscal sustainability, driven by low debt-to-GDP ratios and immigration growth, offers a more stable economic outlook.
Deep dives
Divergent Economic Paths of Canada and the U.S.
Canada and the U.S. are currently following different monetary policy paths, impacting their economic performance. While Canada began cutting interest rates back in June due to persistent inflation and population growth, the U.S. has delayed similar actions, which may cause the Federal Reserve to lag behind. The rapid population growth in Canada, primarily driven by immigration, has contributed to real GDP growth, though standards of living have not improved correspondingly. This divergence sets the stage for varying economic conditions and potential challenges in both countries.
Impact of Mortgage Resets on Consumer Spending
The Bank of Canada's approach to rate cuts is influenced by upcoming mortgage resets, which could significantly affect consumer spending. As mortgages reset at higher rates, consumers will likely have less disposable income and may reduce spending on discretionary items. Cutting rates ahead of these resets aims to mitigate potential recession risks and easing debt service pressures on households. Additionally, lower interest expenses could lead to decreased inflation, creating a complex balancing act for monetary policy.
Canada's Fiscal Stability Compared to the U.S.
Canada stands out positively in terms of fiscal sustainability compared to other G8 countries, especially the U.S., where deficits remain high. With government debt-to-GDP ratios below 100% and projected to decline, Canada is in a stronger fiscal position. This reflects a narrower deficit that is expected to maintain stability through the coming years, aided by growth from immigration. The contrast in fiscal health is significant, as it influences potential future interest rates and economic stability across both nations.
The Canadian economy is rife with potholes that could potentially be hit by a policy mistake, says Stuart Paul, US and Canadian economist for Bloomberg Economics. Paul joins Macro Matters podcast host and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief North American rate strategist Ira Jersey and senior associate rates strategist Will Hoffman to discuss the state of the country’s economy and rate markets. They talk about the key drivers, outlooks and possible risks across the short and medium term, as well as key differences in US and Canadian central-bank mandates and potential policy paths.
The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode