Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl #43 Syria Expert (Aron Lund): 'Things Could Get Much Worse. Here’s Who the Real Winner Is.'
Dec 11, 2024
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Syria's Frozen Conflict and Economy
- Syria was a frozen conflict with Assad controlling most territory backed by Russia and Iran. Kurdish forces and rebels controlled other areas, all protected by external powers like the US and Turkey.
- Despite Assad's apparent victory, Syria's economy collapsed worsening conditions and contributing to the regime's vulnerability.
Assad's Rapid Collapse Surprise
- Nobody expected Assad's regime to fall so quickly, including experts and even the rebels themselves. The rapid fall was a shock driven by unexpectedly weak regime morale and a sudden military collapse.
- The capture of Aleppo was the pivotal moment that triggered the regime's swift disintegration and flight.
Why Assad's Forces Broke Down
- The regime's weakness was underestimated because of poor leadership, low morale, and internal corruption. A key event was killing an Iranian brigadier general early in the Aleppo battle causing a collapse of defenses.
- Panic and flight spread quickly once rebels advanced, and Assad failed to rally forces, leading to total collapse.