Diamond Hill’s Song on Credit Outlook, Landscape: Credit Crunch
Dec 27, 2024
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Henry Song, a portfolio manager at Diamond Hill Capital Management specializing in short duration securitized bond strategies, shares insights on the fixed income landscape. He discusses the advantages of shorter-dated bonds amid high interest rates and inflation challenges. The conversation dives into the intricacies of securitized markets versus corporate bonds, highlighting opportunities in asset-backed securities. Additionally, Song touches on the evolving role of technology in trading and the strategic importance of diverse portfolio construction in today's volatile market.
The short end of the yield curve is preferable for investors due to expected prolonged high interest rates and inflation challenges.
Diamond Hill's investment strategy emphasizes deep credit analysis, focusing on specific bond selections over macroeconomic predictions for superior returns.
Securitized products present valuable opportunities due to structural advantages and lesser investor attention, which often leads to significant undervaluation.
Deep dives
The Investment Philosophy of Diamond Hill
Diamond Hill operates under a clear investment philosophy that emphasizes bottom-up security selection across various asset classes. The firm focuses on deep credit work during underwriting, aiming for 80% or more of their returns to derive from specific bond selections rather than macroeconomic bets. By concentrating on undervalued bonds, they believe that opportunities arise from less frequently issued bonds or those facing temporary headline risks. This approach underscores the belief that 'there are no bad bonds, only bad prices', allowing the firm to seek out profitable investments in overlooked market segments.
Henry Song's Career Journey in Credit
Henry Song, a seasoned portfolio manager, began his career in the credit market in 2005, fueling his passion for mortgage-backed securities and interest rate swaps. His early experiences provided a strong foundation, especially during the 2008 financial crisis when he effectively avoided subprime mortgages, leading to positive returns in a challenging environment. Following this, he transitioned through various roles, ultimately joining Diamond Hill in 2016 to help build their fixed income platform. His diverse expertise has shaped his understanding of emerging credit sectors and their evolution since the Global Financial Crisis.
Client Base and Market Dynamics
Diamond Hill caters to a diverse client base, including institutional clients like endowments and foundations, along with high-net-worth individuals. This blend allows them to tailor fixed income strategies that meet the varying needs of their clients. In 2024, Song highlighted market dynamics, noting that despite a recent rally in credit spreads, it may not be entirely justified by underlying fundamentals. There is a concern that the market's optimism may overlook potential risks, emphasizing the importance of vigilant credit assessments.
Securitized Products and Market Undervaluation
The securitized products market represents a critical investment opportunity, offering structural spread advantages over corporate bonds due to lower investor attention. While the primary market is seeing higher investor interest, the structured nature of securitized products often leads to considerable undervaluation, providing strategic advantages for those willing to engage deeply with credit work. The lack of index inclusion in several securitized sectors presents unique opportunities for gains, suggesting a long-term positive outlook for these investments. Moreover, the attributes of short-duration securities can mitigate risks during economic fluctuations.
The Landscape of the CMBS and RMBS Markets
Henry Song expressed cautious optimism regarding the CMBS market, particularly in light of recent transaction activities that provide clarity on office properties. While there remains concern over the fundamental issues in the office space, particularly regarding occupancy rates, the strengthening of well-capitalized sponsors indicates a gradual recovery. In the RMBS space, the focus is on the strength of home equity positions, where demand is being partly sustained by limited housing supply against a backdrop of increasing global housing costs. This nuanced perspective suggests resilience in certain segments of the residential market while acknowledging ongoing affordability challenges.
The short end of the curve may be better positioned than longer-dated bonds as the interest rates are likely to stay high for longer, with president-elect Donald Trump’s policies potentially amplifying the challenges of bringing inflation to the 2% target, says Henry Song, portfolio manager for Diamond Hill Capital Management. On the latest episode of Credit Crunch, Song and Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier discuss real positive yields, favorable carry for shorter-dated credit across corporates and securitized products as well as housing-related credit, thinking through portfolio construction and technology in trading.
Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast series.
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