Modern Wisdom #424 - Steven Pinker - The Problem With Trying To Be Rational
14 snips
Jan 20, 2022 
In this conversation, Steven Pinker, a Harvard cognitive psychologist and renowned author, dives into the complexities of rationality. He explains why betting websites excel at predictions and discusses how cognitive biases impact our decision-making. Pinker argues that being aware of these biases is crucial for rational thinking and navigating abstract challenges. He also explores the intriguing interplay of emotional intuition and analytical reasoning, along with personal insights on conspiracy theories and their relationship to societal trust.
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Diversify Information Sources
- Seek out information sources beyond those confirming your existing beliefs.
- Explore sources known for objectivity and accuracy, like Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten.
Bayesian Reasoning Explained
- Bayesian reasoning helps calibrate beliefs based on evidence, using a degree of belief from zero to one.
- It involves prior probability, likelihood of evidence given the hypothesis, and evidence commonness.
Scott Alexander's Predictions
- Scott Alexander makes yearly predictions and evaluates them.
- This exemplifies Bayesian reasoning in forecasting.
