HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on the civil war brewing at the Fed
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Apr 18, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a distinguished lead analyst renowned for his housing market insights, joins the conversation. They dive deep into Jerome Powell's leadership at the Federal Reserve amid rising tensions and differing views within the Fed. Mohtashami reveals the surprising resilience of the housing market, countering narratives of panic, as mortgage applications rise despite high interest rates. The discussion also highlights historical comparisons, showcasing how current homebuyer behavior mirrors past trends, defying expectations of a downturn.
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Civil War Brewing at the Fed
- There is a brewing civil war within the Fed between Jerome Powell and hawkish Fed presidents like Waller and Bowman.
- Powell prefers a wait-and-see approach, but others want rate cuts if the labor market weakens, increasing political pressure on Powell.
Inflation Drivers and Tariffs
- Inflation is hard to break out without extreme events like a pandemic or trade wars causing supply issues.
- The Fed sees tariffs as one-off prices but acknowledges trade wars cause longer-term complications impacting inflation.
Housing Demand Defies Fear Narrative
- Despite high rates and market fears, mortgage purchase application data shows surprising year-over-year growth.
- This contradicts the narrative of fearful buyers pulling back and suggests homebuyer confidence remains.