HousingWire Daily Fed presidents push for no rate cut in December
16 snips
Nov 3, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst focused on housing and mortgage trends, joins to discuss the Federal Reserve's resistance to a December rate cut, citing labor market strength. He explains why the Fed prefers to see jobless claims rise before easing rates. Mohtashami also addresses why national home prices remain stable despite predictions of decline and highlights the importance of inventory and mortgage spreads as positive indicators for the housing market in 2025.
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Fed Officials Pushing Back On December Cut
- Multiple Fed presidents publicly pushed back on cutting rates, signaling reluctance to ease policy until labor weakens.
- Logan Mohtashami says the Fed will wait for clear labor-market deterioration before moving from modestly restrictive to neutral.
Jobless Claims Are The Fed's Red Line
- The Fed prioritizes labor data like jobless claims and payrolls before easing policy.
- Logan argues they need visible increases in layoffs and claims to justify moving rates toward neutral.
Population Growth Isn't The Whole Story
- Fed officials cite slower population growth as an explanation for softer payrolls, but Logan disputes it.
- He points to sectoral job losses (manufacturing, construction) and elevated continuing claims as real weakness drivers.