The Property Couch RBA Nov 2025 | Stagflation Risk Emerges as Confidence Drops
Nov 4, 2025
Evan Lucas, a resident economist known for his sharp macroeconomic analysis, joins to discuss the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to hold the cash rate amid rising inflation concerns. He dives into the surprising October CPI results and the critical role of housing inflation. They also tackle the looming risk of stagflation, shifting consumer sentiments, and the potential for future rate cuts in 2026. With insights into rental market pressures and the impact of government spending, this conversation offers a compelling look at the state of the economy.
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RBA Holds As Core Inflation Surges
- The RBA held the cash rate at 3.6% after surprise stickier inflation readings in Q3.
- Core CPI (trim mean) rose to 3.0%, shifting the board to a more patient stance on cuts.
CPI Shock Rewrote Rate Expectations
- The October CPI shock flipped market cut odds to even a possible hike probability briefly.
- Housing and rent components were a major driver, pushing core inflation higher.
Broad-Based Inflation Reacceleration
- Q3 headline inflation jumped to 3.2% with broad-based rises across goods and services.
- Trim mean climbed to 3.0%, the highest since late 2024, complicating the RBA's path.