AI and the Future of War

Sep 4, 2022

Join Paul Scharre, Vice President and Director of Studies at CNAS and a former US Army Ranger, as he dives into the critical intersection of AI and national security. He shares insights on the complexities of military AI applications and the challenges of integrating technology in warfare. Historical perspectives reveal the dangers of autonomous weapons and the ethical dilemmas in modern combat. Scharre emphasizes the need for human oversight and collaboration in defense technology to ensure a stable and safe future in warfare.

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INSIGHT

AI in Warfare: Current Reality

AI's impact on warfare is currently limited by bureaucratic and funding hurdles, not just technological limitations.
Real-world military applications lag behind advancements in AI research labs.

INSIGHT

Near-Term AI in Warfare

In the next five to ten years, AI's role in warfare will likely remain human-centric.
AI will primarily support existing processes, such as intelligence analysis and targeting, rather than replacing them.

INSIGHT

Long-Term AI in Warfare

In the long term (15-20 years), AI could transform warfare by increasing transparency and speed.
This could lead to a faster-paced battlespace that is difficult for humans to manage.

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The Face of Battle

John Keegan

In 'The Face of Battle', John Keegan explores the human experience of combat by examining the mechanics and psychology of warfare in three distinct historical periods. The book focuses on the common soldier's perspective, analyzing the physical and mental aspects of battle and challenging traditional myths about warfare. It is a companion volume to Keegan's 'The Mask of Command', together forming a seminal work in military and human history.

A History of Warfare

John Keegan

In 'A History of Warfare', John Keegan explores the development and cultural influences of warfare across different eras, challenging traditional views like those of Clausewitz. He examines the role of technology, logistics, and societal factors in shaping military strategies and outcomes. The book provides a broad perspective on how warfare has evolved over time, emphasizing its cultural and irrational aspects.

The Hardest Place

Wesley Morgan

The Hardest Place by Wesley Morgan provides a comprehensive narrative of the American military's involvement in Afghanistan's Pech Valley, a region known for its rugged terrain and dense forests. The book explores the valor and futility of the U.S. mission through extensive interviews and research, offering insights into the strategic missteps that plagued the campaign. Morgan's work is praised for its meticulous detail and ability to capture the soldiers' experiences amidst the harsh realities of war.

Arms and influence

Thomas Schelling

Thomas Schelling's "Arms and Influence" is a seminal work in game theory, exploring strategic interactions between nations, particularly during the Cold War. The book delves into the dynamics of nuclear deterrence, arms races, and the complexities of conflict resolution. Schelling introduces concepts like 'salami slicing' and 'brinkmanship', illustrating how seemingly small actions can escalate tensions or lead to unexpected outcomes. His analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding the opponent's incentives and the role of commitment in shaping strategic behavior. The book remains highly relevant in understanding international relations and conflict management.